资本市场历史的启.pptVIP

Besuretoemphasizethatyoudonothavetoactuallysellthestockforyoutoearnthedollarreturn.Thepointisthatyoucould.Notethatthe“dividend”yieldisreallyjusttheyieldonintermediatecashflowYoumightwanttopointoutthattotalpercentagereturnisalsoequaltototaldollarreturn/beginningprice.Totalpercentagereturn=6.25/35=17.86%Clickoneachoftheexceliconstoseeachartofyear-to-yearreturnssimilartothechartsinthetext.ThechartswerecreatedusingthedatainTable10.1.Askthestudentstothinkaboutwhythedifferentinvestmentshavedifferentriskpremiums.Remindstudentsthatthevarianceforasampleiscomputedbydividingbythenumberofobservations–1ThestandarddeviationisjustthesquarerootPointoutthatoneconsequenceofthewideravailabilityofinformationandlowertransactioncostsisthatthemarketwillbemorevolatile.Itiseasiertotradeon“small”newsinsteadofjustbigevents.Itisalsoimportanttorememberthatnotallavailableinformationisreliableinformation.It’simportanttostilldotheresearchandnotjustjumponeverythingthatcrossesthenewswire.ThecaseofEmulex,discussedearlier,isanexcellentexample.Studentsareoftenveryinterestedininsidertrading.SeetheIMforamoredetaileddiscussion.Empiricalevidencesuggeststhatsomestocksaresemistrongformefficient,butnotall.Larger,morecloselyfollowedstocksaremorelikelytobesemistrongformefficient.Small,morethinlytradedstocksmaynotbesemistrongformefficientbutliquiditycostsmaywipeoutanyabnormalreturnsthatareavailable.Emphasizethatjustbecausetechnicalanalysisshouldn’tleadtoabnormalreturns,thatdoesn’tmeanthatyouwon’tearnfairreturnsusingit–efficientmarketsimplythatyouwill.Youmightalsowanttopointoutthattherearemanytechnicaltradingrulesthathaveneverbeenempiricallytested;soitispossiblethatoneofth