2026年英国经济展望报告-增长趋缓（英文版）.pptxVIP

nWeexpectanothermixedyearfortheUKeconomyin2026,characterisedbytrend–likegrowthandfurtherincreasesinunemployment,butalsomateriallylowerinflationandthreemoreBankRatecutsto3%.

nAlthoughrealdisposableincomegrowthislikelytoremainweakinthecomingquarters,weseescopeforthesavingsratetodeclinefurtherthisyearasinterestratesfallandthusexpectsomepick–upinconsumptiongrowth.Fiscalpolicy

remainscontractionary(despitehighernear–termspendingintheBudget),buttheBoE’sratecutsshouldsupportgrowthin2026.Takentogether,welookfor

1.4%Q4/Q4growththisyear,upfromaround1%in2025.ThismatchesourestimateofpotentialandisclosetoconsensusandtheMPC’sforecast.

nThelabourmarketweakenedsignificantlylastyear,asbelow–trendgrowthandtheriseinnationalinsurancecontributionsweighedonemployment.Therecentriseinredundanciespointstofurtherlabourmarketsofteningahead,andwe

expecttheunemploymentratetoriseto5.3%byMarch.Asaresult,weexpectwagegrowthtobroadlynormalisethisyear.Privatesectorregularpaygrowth

hasalreadyslowedfromaround6%toabout4%overthelast12months,andweforecastfurthercoolingto3.1%byend–2026.

nInflationsurprisedsignificantlytotheupsidelastyearandservicesinflation

remainselevated.Thatsaid,measuresofunderlyingservicesinflationhavemadenotableprogress,andweexpectmaterialfurtherdisinflationfromunwinding

baseeffects(inbothenergyandregulatedprices),acutinhouseholdenergybillsandweakerprivaterentinflation.Asaresult,weprojectservicesinflationtoslowsignificantlyandheadlineinflationshoulddeclineto2.1%inQ2.

nWethereforecontinuetoexpectthreefurtherBankRatecutsthisyeartoa3%terminalrate,whichmatchesourestimateoftheneutralrate.OurbaselineisthattheMPClowersBankRateinMarch,June,andSeptember,al