股权方法与模型.pptxVIP

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page1/11Topic4

VALUATIONOFTHEFIRMTypesofequityfinanceGordongrowthmodelImplications

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page2/11EQUITYVALUE

GeneralFormulaGivenequitycashflow(dividendsD1,D2………..),valueattime0is:WhereE0istheconditionalexpectationasofnow(time0),ktistheappropriatediscountrateforeachperiodt(i.e.therateincorporatingtheriskpremium.)(Note:thisassumesD0hasalreadybeenpaidout)(4.1)

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page3/11ProblemswithGeneralValuationFormula(4.1)Wheredowegetthecorrectdiscountratesforeachfutureperiodfrom?(CAPM?APT?…??)Howtoforecastfuturedividends?

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page4/11GORDONGROWTHMODELsimplifiestheanalysisbyassuming:Discountrateconstantovertimeforanyfirm (i.e.k1=k2=………=kconstant)Dividendgrowsatconstantrategeachperiod (i.e.D0,D0(1+g),D0(1+g)2,D0(1+g)3………)

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page5/11Thenequation(4.1)es:Sincethedividendflowcontinuestoinfinity,wecanusetheformulaforaperpetuitytogettheGordonGrowthFormula(orDividendDiscountModel):Whichgivesaquickrule-of-thumbmethodforcomputingvalue,basedonlyonestimatesofthedividendgrowthrateandtheappropriatediscountfactorforthefirminquestion.(4.2)

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page6/11NOTESONGORDONGROWTHMODELAssumesgk(Whathappensifg=k?)Forg=0,reducesto:sointhiscaseequityvaluedlikeconsol

02/02/2026CopyrightLaurenceCopelandTopic4Page7/11HOLDINGPERIODRETURN(HPR)If(4.2)givesvalue(marketprice)offirm’sequityatt=0,whatisitsvaluenextperiodatt=1?Socapitalgainbetweentime0andtime1is:Andsincetotalreturntoholderbetweentime0andtime1isdividendpluscapitalgain,HPRis:i.e.HPR=dividendyield+dividendgrowthrate