麦肯锡：平价电动车的未来，电池组成本的突破-2026-02-新能源.pdfVIP

McKinseyCenterforFutureMobility

Thefutureofaffordable

EVs:Breakthroughsin

batterypackcosts

Theshiftfrominternalcombustionenginestobatteryelectricvehiclesis

currentlychallenged.Achievingcostparitythroughbatterypackcost

reductioniskeytocontinueexponentialgrowth.

byClemensCepnikandMartinLinder

withAndreasHaunreiterandLucaBuscaglione

January2026

Untilrecently,theshiftfrominternalcombustionengine(ICEvehiclestobatteryelectric

vehicles(BEVswassteadilygainingmomentum,drivenprimarilybyinternationaltargetsfor

reducingCO2emissions.Newvehiclessoldhaveboldtargets—49.5gramsofCO₂perkilometer

1

(km)by2030intheEuropeanUnion,forexample—withrelatedpenaltiesforexceedingfleet

targetsplayingamajorroleinincreasedelectrification.

Despitesomeslowdowncausedbygeopoliticaltrendsandconstantlychangingclimatetargets,

ourforecastsshowglobalBEVsalestoincreaseby18percentperyearby2030tomeetcurrent

regulatorytargets.Toachievetheprojectedglobalramp-upofzero-emissionvehicles,EVswill

needtopenetratemassmarketsbefore2030.Althoughthetotalcostofownership(TCOfor

manyEVs(includingpurchaseprice,maintenance,electricity,taxes,andinsuranceisbetter

whencomparedwithICEvehiclesinimportantmarkets,highercostsandcustomerpricesfor

BEVsremainsignificantbarrierstofasteradoption.

ThelargestcostdriverforBEVsisthebatterypack,whichtypicallyaccountsfor30to40

percentofavehicle’stotalcost.Eventhoughcostshavefallensignificantlyinthepastfew

years,largebatterypackscancostasmuchas€15,000forincumbentOEMs.Still,some

Chinesecompanieshavefoundadditionalcostadvantagesof25