新型风险投资项目选择的统计研究(英文).doc

Statistical Study of New Types of Risk Investment Project Evaluation ZHANG Lihua College of Economics And Managerment Of HeBei Ploytechnic University , P.R. China, 063009 Abstract：In order to overcome existing venture capital project evaluation models shortcomings such as the difficulty in determining relevant coefficients’ values and the coarse and simple risk measure, by using factors analysis , the risk value of venture capital project evaluation was calculated in this paper, which opens a new way to venture capital project evaluation, simulation results show the reasonability and use value of our new models. Key words: venture enterprise, factor analysis, risk value, project evaluation 1 Introduction Venture capital certainly should be called a new breed of capital operation model by integrating innovation, technology, finance, investment, management and marketing in a whole body. The characteristic of VC lies in its high risk and high profitability, and the risk become the eternal theme of venture capital. At the same time, in order to obtain feasible and efficient investment plan Venture capital organizations usually have multiple risk project can be chosen from in practical running, but is necessary to make choice of these venture capital projects by using decision method due to the limitation of total capital amount and human resource, therefore, discussing the project evaluation of venture capital has great important theoretical and practical significance. It is not difficult to recognize four methods are applied on the study of risk investment project evaluation: (1) net present value, (2) desired utility, (3) real options and (4) analytical hierarchy process. But these means have many defects in the application, for example, the analytical hierarchy process method which is often discussed by the academic circles, firstly hierarchical division is sophisticated, secondly decision is subjective and the calculations is very complex. The current decision app