中国资本项目开放的条件分析.pdfVIP

中国资本项目开放的条件分析 摘 要 资本项目开放是发展中国家在参与世界工业化、城镇化、全球化过程中无法 回避的问题。然而资本项目开放是一把“双刃剑”，他在促使全球资本优化配置 的同时，也往往引发金融危机。有研究发现，发展中国家在全面开放资本项目的 五至七年内，都会爆发金融危机。 本文首先介绍改革开放与资本市场开放的国际经验，重点介绍了韩国在金融 危机前后对资本项目开放采取的不同的态度。接着比较了八十年代发生在拉美国 家的经济危机、九十年代初期发生在欧洲的货币危机、九十年代后期发生在亚洲 的金融危机，以及这些金融危机与资本项目开放的关联度，然后比较几代货币危 机主义理论，总结出金融危机、货币危机与资本项目开放的关系。智利的资本项 目开放很早也非常成功地促进了该国的经济发展，笔者结合资料总结了智力资本 项目开放取得成功的经验；然后从理论上介绍发展中国家开放资本项目应具备什 么样的条件；介绍中国资本项目开放的现状与困境。最后结合我国现阶段的经济 发展实际，给出政策项建议，即我国资本项目开放的条件。 关键词： 中国 资本项目 开放 条件 I 中国资本项目开放的条件分析 Abstract Capital account opening is an unavoidable and actual problem in developing countries’ involvement in the world’s industrialization and globalization. The opening of capital account is a two-fold knife, however, it can maximize the profit of allocation of the whole world’s capital, and it can also bring in financial crisis. Some research finds that, within five to seven years after the developing countries absolutely opening their capital account, financial would happen. In this article, I first introduce the international experience of reform opening and capital account opening; I focus on the different attitudes toward its capital account opening before and after its financial crisis. Then I compare the financial crisis happening in 1980s in Latin America, in early 1990s in Europe and in late 1990s in Asia, and then I discuss the relationships between finance crises and capital accounts’ open. I compare those generations of current crises theories and then draw on the conclusion on the relationships of finance crises and capital accounts’ open. The capi