农民工城镇就业满意度及其影响因素：模型与实证.docVIP

  农民工城镇就业满意度及其影响因素：模型 与实证# 程名望* 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （同济大学经济与管理学院，上海 200092） 摘要：从农民工城镇就业满意度的视角，首先建立不完全信息无限期重复动态博弈模型研究 农民工和用工企业的最优决策，然后基于上海 1446 份农民工调查样本所建立的有序 Probit 模型及实证分析显示，工资收入、交通出行、子女教育、医疗卫生、城市适应性以及户籍制 度等因素对农民工城镇就业满意度有显著影响；而居住条件、工作福利、社会保障、劳动保 护、权益侵犯等因素对农民工城镇就业满意度的影响并不显著。这表明，目前，影响农民工 城镇就业满意度的既有工资收入等物质因素，也有城市适应性等精神因素。但比较而言，物 质因素更为显著。因此，要应对“民工荒”，首先是要满足农民工的物质需求，给予农民工 实实在在的经济收益，其次是要注重完善和调整针对农民工城镇就业的相关政策。该研究对 于揭示“民工荒”的成因，保持农村劳动力有序、平稳、持续地向城镇转移，乃至对于农村 劳动力从“候鸟式”转移到“生根式”迁移的本质性转变，都具有重要意义。 关键词：农业经济；农民工；城镇就业满意度；不完全信息无限期重复动态博弈；有序 Probit 模型 中图分类号：F328, J430 A Model and Emprise Analysis on Urban Employment Satisfaction and Influencing Factors of Rural Migrant Workers Cheng Mingwang (Business School,Tongji University, ShangHai 200092) Abstract: In this paper，From the perspective of urban employment satisfaction of rural migrant workers, A model of repeated dynamic games with incomplete information was established to study the best decisions of rural migrant workers and business owners. Then based on 1446 survey samples in Shanghai, the emprise analysis finds that wage, transport, childrens education, health, urban adaptation and the household registration system have a significant effect on urban employment of rural migrant workers in China, but living conditions, employment benefits, social security, labor protection and rights violations have not affect significantly. This indicates that, at present, factors of employment satisfaction of migrant workers in towns are not only material factors such as wages, but also spiritual factors such as urban adaptability. In comparison, the material factor is more significant than spiritual factors. Therefore, to deal with “labor shortage”, the key is to meet the material needs of migrant workers, to give tangible economic benefits of migrant workers, but also focus on improving and adjusting the policy of urban employment. The research is important to reveal the causes of the “ Labor Shortage” and maintain the rural labor force t