农村环境多主体仿真系统建构.docVIP

北京大学学报( 自然科学版) , 第 46 卷, 第 1 期, 2010 年 1 月 Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, Vol. 46, No. 1 ( Jan. 2010) 农村环境多主体仿真系统建构 ) ) ) 农户模型在农村环境管理中的应用  杨顺顺  -  北京大学深圳研究生院, 城 市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室, 深圳 518055; 北京大学环境科学 与工程学院, 北京 100871; -通讯作者, E2 mail: luansj@ szpku. edu. cn  摘要  针对我国农村环境研究现状和农户模型在农村环境分析中的问题, 借助基于复杂适应 系统理论的 多主体建 模技术, 使用 Swarm 工具开发了适用于我国农 村经济2环境评估的 SFRE 系统, 能有效集 成计量经济 学、统 计学和污 染物排放模型, 并通过/ 虚拟农户0这一微观主体来 涌现宏 观现象。阐 述了 5 个 主要的 模型假 设和系 统主体 规则, 并简要概述了生产、消费、社会环 境和环境评估 4 个子系 统的设计 方法。此 方法是 多主体建 模用于 研究完 整的农 村经济系统和评价农村环境变化的率先尝试。 关键词 农户; 农村环境; 多主体模型; 复杂适应系统理 论; Swarm 仿真 中图分类号 N945 Construction of Rural Environment Multi2Agent Simulation System: Application of Agricultural Household Model on Rural Environmental Management  YANG Shunshun, LUAN Shengji  - Key Laboratory for Environmental and Urban Sciences, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055; College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871; -Corresponding Author, E2 mail: luansj@ szpku. edu. cn  Abstr act  In view of the problems happened in China rural environment and the usage of agricultural household model to analyze rural environment, this research developed a Chinese rural economy2 environment evaluation system, SFRE, based on the complex adaptive system theory with the aid of Swarm Tool. The SFRE system, which integrated econometrics, statistics and the pollutant discharge model effectively, could emerge the macroscopic phenomenon by the activities of microscopic agents ) / the virtual agricultural household0 . Besides, the authors elaborated five main model assumptions and the agent rules, and summarized the designing approaches about four subsystems of the rural production, consumption, social environment and environmental assessment. It is an initiative attempt as a multi2 agent based model for studying the rural economics completely and assessing rural environmental changes. Key wor ds agricultural household; rural environme