外文翻译--人民币在中国：其价值、其可调节汇率和其未来发展.docVIP

外文原文 The Chinese RMB: Its Value, Its Peg, and Its Future --TRADE IMBALANCES HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE U.S. THAN WITH CHINA The valuation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has drawn lots of attention lately and a great deal of pressure on the part of developed nations for revaluation. In addressing the issue of valuation, this paper develops a new purchasing power parity (PPP) index of China’s exchange rate and finds that the while undervalued, the undervaluation is neither unusual nor bad policy. Moreover, China’s overall external trade balance does not seem to be that far out of equilibrium. China’s desire to join the G-7 club is likely to result in abandoning its peg, however, despite the increased risk to its economic development. The valuation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has drawn lots of attention lately. The IMF, theU.S. government, and the G-7 finance ministers are urging China to revalue its currency,which is currently pegged at 8.28 to the dollar.The arguments for China to appreciate its currency roughly follow these lines: ? China’s currency is grossly undervalued; ? the undervalued RMB is attracting a flood of hot money into China, complicating the authorities’ efforts to engineer a soft-landing for an overheated economy; and ? the RMB’s undervaluation and its peg to the dollar are preventing other Asian countries from allowing currencies to rise against the dollar, since appreciation would damage competiveness relative to China. This last point is of particular concern because, it is argued , U.S. external imbalances cannot be addressed in the face of China’s and other Asian nations’ historically unprecedented accumulations of U.S. dollar reserves in recent years .There have been many studies on the RMB’s valuation with inconclusive, contradictory results (see, e.g.,Wang, 2004). To address that difficult valuation question, this paper develops a new absolute PPP index that measures China’s PPP against the United States and other countries. The new index