国际油价、汇率和股价关系的实证研究.docVIP

摘 要 由于《2012年世界能源统计年鉴》的出版，又一次把能源问题推到了风口浪尖，能源是支撑人类文明进步的物质基础，是经济社会发展不可或缺的基本条件。进入新世纪以来，我国能源实现了跨越式发展，成为世界上最大的能源生产和消费国，能源结构调整也取得了新成效，形成了煤炭、电力、油气和新能源、可再生能源全面发展的能源供应体系，能源服务水平大幅度提升，居民用能条件有了明显改善。能源的发展，为消除贫困、改善民生、保持经济社会平稳快速发展提供了有力保障。Since the publication of the World Energy Statistics Yearbook 2012, and again to push energy issues to the cusp of Energy is supporting the progress of human civilization, the material basis,and it is an integral part of the basic conditions for economic and social development. Since the beginning of the new century, Chinas energy development by leaps and bounds to become the worlds largest energy producer and consumer of energy structure adjustment has also made new achievements, coal, electricity, oil and gas and new energy, the all-round development of the renewable energy supply system, energy greatly enhance the level of service, residents’ living standard has improved significantly. Energy development, provide a strong guarantee for the elimination of poverty, and improve peoples livelihood, maintaining steady and rapid economic and social development. Which crude oil is a key factor in the energy problem, and crude oil as one of the energy an integral part of the development of the world economy, whether in the economic or political impact on the world. China, as an important country in the development of globalization, in the crude oil economy plays what role, and what kind of impact between the crude oil economy and Chinas economic, which is the starting point of this article. Selected from 2005 to 2012, a total of five years each trading day as a time series, using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function and variance decomposition, the international crude oil prices, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate and stock price set for variables, in order to achieve the study of the correlation between the appeal of three variables. Through a systematic analysis o