试析宏观经济运行对股票价值的影响机制.docVIP

题目 经济周期与股票价值变动：传导机制研究 作者 李学峰 工作单位 南开大学金融学系 通讯地址 天津市卫津路94号南开大学金融学系 邮编 3000071 电话 022E-mail lixuefeng65@ 内容提要 经济周期变化将影响股票价值，这已是理论界和实际部门的共识，但现有研究却少见从理论上揭示经济周期变化对股票价值变动的影响机制。本文从经典的收入－支出模型出发，通过研究有效需求变动对模型均衡的影响，对经济周期变化的内在机制给以了新的理论解释；然后我们通过建立二元股权估值模型，明确了决定股票价值的核心因素。在上述研究基础上，我们证明了经济周期变化对股票价值的影响机制，即经济周期通过影响预期的分红所得和资本利得以及贴现率等因素，而影响股票价值的决定。这一研究一方面从理论上揭示了健康的宏观经济运行对股票价值、进而对股票市场稳定运行的重要性；另一方面对实际投资决策也有重要指导意义。 Abstract: Although it is theoretically and practically accepted that the economic cyclic fluctuation is to affect the value of stock, it is seldom discovered in theory that the influencing mechanism of the economic cyclic fluctuation is to affect the value of stock. This paper, firstly, based on the classical input-output model, gives a newly theoretical explanation about the internal mechanism of the economic cyclic fluctuation by means of researching on the effect of the effective demand alteration on the equilibrium of the model. Then, it is clear that the kernel factors determine the value of stock by dual shareholding valuation model. Based on the research mentioned above, we have proved that the influencing mechanism of the economic cyclic fluctuation on the value of stocks---economic cycle--- influences the determination of the value of stock, by affecting the factors such as expected dividend income, capital gain, and discount rate. The research, on the one hand, theoretically presents the essentiality of healthy macroeconomic function to the value of stock and the stabilization of the stock market. On the other hand, it has importantly guiding significance to investment decision-making in practice. Key words: Economic Cycle; Stock Value; Influencing Mechanism 经济周期与股票价值变动：传导机制研究 宏观经济运行影响股票价值，这已是理论界和证券实际部门的共识。然而，对这一共识的理论研究却存在着如下不足：其一，宏观经济运行的重要特点是其呈现周期性变化，而对经济周期的研究一般是将其归结为一种货币现象（M.弗里德曼，1986），并据此对经济周期的两个主要阶段——通货膨胀和通货紧缩——分别给以了研究和解释（R. Dornbush and J.A.Frenkel，1973；P.Krugman，1999），但这些研究对经济周期总体的内在变化机制还缺乏全面和细致的揭示；（也正因此）其二，导致了对股票价值决定因素的研究一般是从微观或技术的角度进行的，如W.Shar