中国对外贸易统计体系的改进及评价.pdfVIP

中国对外贸易统计体系的改进及评价 摘要 随着经济全球化的迅速发展，直接投资规模不断扩大，贸易投资一体化趋势日 益增强，跨国公司内部贸易对国际贸易的影响越来越重要。一国的对外贸易顺差很 可能源自外国在本国子公司的大量出口，而一国对外贸易逆差也很可能源自本国在 国外子公司的大量返销。传统贸易统计体系以 “常住”原则为基础，只有当一项交 易发生在一国常住单位与非常住单位之间时才被计入该国的进口或出口，它已经不 能完整地反映一国在对外贸易中的真实利得以及该国的经济地位。构建属权原则的 贸易统计体系已成为当务之急。 本文将在梳理、归纳国内外学者对属权原则贸易统计体系的研究成果，结合现 有数据可得性，基于属权原则对我国单边贸易额进行重新估算，希望得到能够真实 反映实际贸易现状的贸易额；然后在估算基础上，将利用属权原则下的贸易额构建 模型，对出口额、进口额与 GDP 之间的关系进行实证分析，希望得出更加切合实际 的结论。 对我国对外货物贸易额重新估算的结果显示，传统贸易统计体系下的对外贸易 额高估了我国的利得，改进后的贸易差额显示中国的货物贸易为逆差。实证分析结 果显示，改进后的出口额对经济总量的影响小于改进前，而且改进后的进口额与其 他经济变量的联系更加紧密了。 关键词：对外贸易；外国直接投资；属权原则贸易统计体系 4 中国对外贸易统计体系的改进及评价 Abstract Under the development of economic globalization, the amount of the direct investment increases constantly and the tendency of integration of trade and investment also increases steadily. The intrafirm trade of the MNC is now playing an important role in international trade. The trade surplus probably originates from the exports of the foreign subsidiary in domestic, and the trade deficit may originates from the imports from the domestic subsidiary in foreign. The conventional trade statistical system takes ‘residence ’ principle as a foundation, a transaction is included in the country’s import or export only when it cross the custom boundary. It has already could not reflect the gain and the economic status in the international trade of one country. Therefore, it is important to try to construct the framework of ownership-based trade statistical system. This thesis will sum up the research results of the scholars from the foreign and domestic. Considering the availability