广东省碳排放与贸易隐含碳的测算及影响因素研究.pdfVIP

中文摘要 随着低碳经济全球化浪潮的到来，如何降低碳排放量的问题已经成为世界各 国经济发展过程中一个越来越被重视的问题。本文以广东省碳排放以及进出口贸 易隐含碳现状作为基本立足点，利用排放系数法估算出1990-2010 年广东省碳排 放总量与排放强度，并利用投入产出法测算出广东省进出口贸易中隐含碳量，然 后对两者的阶段特征和行业特征分别进行剖析，以建立对广东省碳排放现状的宏 观认识。在此基础上，本文将结合Kaya 等式和LMDI 影响因素分解法，从宏观 层面、产业层面和行业层面三个角度对影响广东省碳排放量的技术因素、结构因 素、规模因素、能源因素等要素进行了分解分析；并针对广东外贸大省的实际情 况，着重分行业分析了影响其进出口贸易隐含碳排放的贸易规模、结构及技术等 因素的贡献度。最后，在上述理论和实证分析的基础上，得出本文的研究结论并 据此提出有针对性政策启示，为广东省十二五期间的碳减排任务提供决策参考。 关键词： 碳排放 隐含碳 投入产出法 LMDI 因素分解法 I Abstract With the arrival of the globalization of the low-carbon economy, It becomes an increasingly important problem that how to reduce carbon emissions during the economic development for the most of countries. As to know the overview of the carbon emissions and the embodied carbon of trade in Guangdong Province, the article will use the emissions coefficient method to estimate the total carbon emissions and emissions intensity from 1990 to 2010 and use the input-output method to calculate the embodied carbon in export and import trade. And then the stage characteristics and industrial characteristics were analyzed to build a macro understanding of the status of the carbon emissions in Guangdong Province. On this basis, we will combine the Kaya equation with the LMDI decomposition method to analyze many factors such as technical factors, structural factors, scale factors, energy factors from three perspectives. For the actual situation that Guangdong province is a major area on foreign trade, the paper will mainly use the sub-industry analysis method to estimate the contribution of the trade size, structure and technical factors on the embodied carbon in its import and export trade. F