东盟对中国直接投资的贸易效应研究.pdfVIP

摘要 国际贸易和国际直接投资是国际分工的两种基本表现形式，一直以来，对 其之间关系的研究不断丰富和发展。理论界普遍认为贸易与投资的关系或呈替 代或呈互补或兼具两者，实证研究则通过划分特定行业或区域进行研究以检验 和拓展现有理论。 受到亚洲经济的快速发展和日益增强的一体化趋势的启发，本文将检验对外 直接投资的贸易效应的切入点锁定在中国和东盟，即通过搜集东盟对中国直接 投资和双边贸易数据，验证二者间的关系。 在从国际环境、历史沿革、经济发展、贸易现状和投资现状等五方面对中国 和东盟开展经济活动的背景进行分析的基础上，本文运用计量方法，对东盟对 中国投资的贸易效应进行分析，其结果表明，东盟对中国投资对中国出口东盟 有一定的替代作用，对中国从东盟进口则有一定促进作用，但这两种作用的效 果都很小。这一结果与经验分析相符，根源于过低的投资额、较短的发展历史 和双边贸易品的特殊构成等因素。 在文章的最后，针对当前双方投资和贸易中出现的问题，提出了相应的对策， 并相信随着双边经贸往来的进一步深入，投资和贸易将会有更快的发展，其相 互关系也会更为密切。 关键词： 国际贸易 国际投资 互补 替代 Abstract International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are two fundamental way of international division. The study on the interrelationship between them has been greatly developed over the past decades. It is widely believed that the relationship is either substitution or complementation or both in academia now; and the empirical research always focus on a specific industry or area to test the relationship and support or confute the theory. Ignited by the rapid development of Asian economy and the increasingly obvious trend of regional integration, I decide to focus my research on China and ASEAN. The trade effect of ASEAN’s FDI to China will be tested in this paper after collecting and presenting all the necessary data. The research results of other scholars in this field are listed in the first part of this study. The second part contains background analysis of the economic activities between China and ASEAN from five perspectives, namely, global environment, history, economic development, current situation of trade and investment. An empirical model is built to test the trade effect of ASEAN’s FDI to China in the third part. The result suggests that FDI has a negative effect on China’s export to ASEAN, while has a positive effect on import in the long run, which is coincident with the c