IMF世界经济展望第三章(2012年秋季)英文版.pdfVIP

r e t p t he Good, the Bad, and the UG ly: 100 y ears of dealinG with a h c 3 pUBlic deBt overhanGs Throughout the past century, numerous advanced economies have faced public debt burdens as high, or higher, than those prevailing today. They responded with a wide variety of policy approaches. We analyze these experiences to draw lessons for today and reach three main conclusions. First, successful debt reduc- tion requires fiscal consolidation and a policy mix that supports growth. Key elements of this policy mix Figure 3.1. Public Debt in Advanced Economies are measures that address structural weaknesses in the economy and supportive monetary policy. Second, fiscal Gross public debt as a percent of GDP among advanced economies has reached historical highs: Japan, the United States, and many European countries currently have debt-to-GDP consolidation must emphasize persistent, structural ratios close to or above 100 percent. reforms to public finances over temporary or short-lived fiscal measures. In this respect, fiscal institutions can 1. Historical Debt Levels 130 (2011 U.S. dollar GDP-weighted average, percent) 120 help lock in any gains. Third, reducing public debt 110 takes time, especially in the context of a weak external