城市产业结构多重均衡的研究外文翻译.docVIP

原文：（题目开始至P32倒数第五行） A SEARCH FOR MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA IN URBAN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ABSTRACT Theories featuring multiple equilibria are widespread across economics.Yet little empirical work has asked if multiple equilibria are features of real economies.We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in World War II. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the industries it had before. 1. MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA IN THEORY AND DATA The concept of multiple equilibria is a hallmark of modern economics, one whose influence crosses broad swathes of the profession. In macroeconomics, it is offered as an underpinning for the business cycle (Cooper and John, 1988).In development economics it rationalizes a theory of the “big push” (Murphy，Shleifer, and Vishny, 1988). In urban and regional economics, it provides a foundation for understanding variation in the density of economic activity across cities and regions (Krugman, 1991). In the field of international economics, it has even been offered as a candidate explanation for the division of the global economy into an industrial North and a nonindustrial South, as well as the possible future collapse of such a world regime (Krugman and Venables, 1995). The theoretical literature has now firmly established the analytic foundations for the existence of multiple equilibria. However, theory has far outpaced empirics. The most important empirical question arising from this intellectual current has almost not been touched: Are multiple equilibria a salient feature of real economiesfi This is inherently a difficult question. At any moment in time,one observes only the actual equilibrium