我国上市公司财务预警实证研究毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 我国上市公司财务预警实证研究 摘 要 企业财务预警是一项涉及各个环境和行为进程中设立的各种采集、测评、调节和控制的综合体，同时这个综合体也要对企业的各种行为提供完善和全面的决策依据，为未来风险控制和失误改正提供工作的准则，也为各种监控提供手段和工具。本文采用实证分析法，对我国制造业建立财务危机预警系统进行研究。通过实证研究表明：制造业上市公司。关键词：Abstract Enterprise Financial Early Warning is a process involved in various environmental and behavior established by the collection, evaluation, regulation and control of the complex, while the synthesis of various acts of enterprises should also provide a sound and comprehensive basis for decision making for the future risk control and error correction to provide guidelines for the work, but also provide a variety of monitoring methods and tools. In this paper, empirical analysis of Chinas manufacturing enterprises to establish a system of financial distress. Firstly, selected among 30 manufacturing industries in 2010 as a research sample of listed companies. Then, from financial management to select the 18 financial indicators, and the three years 2007-2009 based on data by SPSS software, the financial indicators of significant analysis, the eventual establishment of Logistic regression model. The empirical research shows that: the profitability of listed companies in China manufacturing capabilities, ability to obtain cash and the possibility of financial distress was negatively correlated; solvency and the possibility of financial distress were positively correlated; operational capacity and capacity development and financial crises possibilities are not relevant. Keywords: Manufacturing; Financial crisis; Financial early warning目 录 1 财务预警相关概述 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2 研究意义 1 1.3 财务危机概述 2 1.4 财务预警概述 3 1.5 财务预警研究方法 3 1.5.1单变量模型 3 1.5.2 多变量模型 4 2 实证研究设计 5 2.1 研究假设 5 2.2 样本的选择 5 2.3 财务数据的选择 6 2.4 财务指标的选择 7 3 我国制造型企业财务预警实证分析 9 3.1 研究程序 9 3.2 变量的显著性检验 9 3.3 逻辑回归分析 13 3.4 实证结果分析 15 4 研究结论与局限性 16 4.1研究结论 16 4.2 研究的局限性 16 结 论 18 参考文献 19 致 谢 20 随着全球经济一体化和我国经济的快速发展，企业间的竞争日益激烈，因财务危机导致企业陷入财务困境甚至破产的例子屡见不鲜。虽然企业步入财务危机的原因是多方面的，可能是管理层决策失误，也可能是外部环境的恶化，比如08年美国次贷危机引发的全球性经济衰退。但任何财务危机都有一个逐步显现