利用外资与经济增长外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 Foreign Capital and Economic Growth Material Source: /dp3186.pdf Author:Eswar S. Prasad We document the recent phenomenon of “uphill” flows of capital from nonindustrial to industrial countries and analyze whether this pattern of capital flows has hurt growth innonindustrial economies that export capital. Surprisingly, we find that there is a positive correlation between current account balances and growth among nonindustrial countries, implying that a reduced reliance on foreign capital is associated with higher growth. This result is weaker when we use panel data rather than cross-sectional averages over long periods of time,but in no case do we find any evidence that an increase in foreign capital inflows directly boosts growth. What explains these results,which are contrary to the predictions of conventional theoretical models? We provide some evidence that even successful developing countries have limited absorptive capacity for foreign resources,either because their financial markets are underdeveloped,or because their economies are prone to overvaluation caused by rapid capital inflows. In one of his most memorable and widely quoted passages, John Maynard Keynes extolled the virtues not only of trade integration but also of financial integration when he wrote, in 1920, of the fabled Englishman who could adventure his wealth in… new enterprises of any quarter of theworld, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages. Consistency was, of course, not a Keynesian virtue, and in 1933, in one of his less quoted passages,Keyness musings on globalization turned more melancholy, even skeptical: I sympathize with those who would minimize, rather than with those who would maximize, economic entanglement among nations. Ideas, knowledge, science, hospitality, travel;these are the things which should of their nature be international. But let goods be homespun whenever it is reasonably and conveniently possible.