我国空气质量健康指数的初步研究.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2013,33(11) ：2081~2086 China Environmental Science 我国空气质量健康指数的初步研究 陈仁杰, 陈秉衡, 阚海东* ( 复旦大学公共卫生学院环境卫生教研室, 公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室,上海 200032) 摘要：收集我国 16 个城市 2001~2010 年每日 PM 、SO 和 NO 浓度和居民日死亡数,采用经典的时间序列研究方法和贝叶斯层次模型, 10 2 2 分析在全国水平上各污染物与居民每日总死亡率的暴露反应关系,据此构建我国空气质量健康指数(AQHI). 比较 AQHI 与现行空气污染指 数(API)和空气质量指数(AQI)预测居民日死亡率的能力.结果显示,AQHI 的构建公式为:AQHI=10/16.4×100×[exp(0.00019×PM10)-1+exp (0.00061×NO2)-1].AQHI 预测居民每日总死亡率、心血管疾病死亡率和呼吸系统疾病死亡率的强度和精确度均优于现行的 API 与 AQI. 关键词：大气污染；空气质量；指数；健康 中图分类号：X503.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2013)11-2081-06 * Air quality health index in China: a pilot study. CHEN Ren-jie, CHEN Bing-heng, KAN Hai-dong (Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China). China Environmental Scicence, 2013,33(11)：2081~2086 Abstract ：Daily concentrations of PM , SO and NO from 2001 to 2010 in 16 Chinese cities were collected to obtain the 10 2 2 exposure-response relationships with daily mortality using the standard time series regression and Hierarchical Bayesian models. The coefficients of PM -mortality association and NO -mortality association were directly used to construct the 10 2 air quality health index (AQHI). Then, the AQHI was validated by examining its ability to predict daily mortality and comparing this ability with existing air pollution index (API) and air quality index (AQI). The results showed the formula of AQHI was AQHI=10/16.4×100×[exp(0.00019×PM )-1+exp(0.00061×NO )-1]. The magnitude of AQHI’s predictive