西江水文干旱历时与强度的遭遇概率分析.pdfVIP

LakeSci．(湖泊科学)，2013，25(4)：576—582 http：／／www．jlakes．org．E—mail：jlakes@niglas．ac．ell @2013byJournalof Sciences 西江水文干旱历时与强度的遭遇概率分析 陈子粜，刘 占明，黄 强 (中山大学地理学院水资源与环境系，广州 510275) 摘 要：利用西江下游马口水文站 1959—2009年月径流量数据计算径流干旱指数，经游程理论提取了水文干旱特征值． 应用Copula函数分析水文干旱强度和历时之间的联合概率分布．对构建的干旱历时和强度联合分布模式进行分析，结果 表明：(1)径流干旱历时和强度之问具有高关联性，秩相关系数达0．617；(2)三参数Weibul1分布较好地描述了干旱历 时和强度的边缘分布特征；(3)经拟合优度检验结果优选的干旱历时和强度之间的较优连接函数为 Archimedean类的 Gumbel—HougaardCopula函数；(4)5～10年重现期和20年重现期的水文干旱分别达到了重旱级别和特旱级别；(5)干旱 历时和强度之间的遭遇概率可为特定干旱历时与水文干旱级别或特定干旱强度与干旱历时之间的对应关系提供概率意 义上的干旱特征诊断与预测． 关键词：水文干旱；径流干旱指数；干旱历时与强度；遭遇概率；马口水文站；西江 ProbabilityofhydrologicdroughtdurationandintensiytofXijiangRiver CHENZishen．LIUZhanmingHUANGQiang (DepartmentofWaterResourceandEnvironmentof GeographyandPlanningSchool，SunYat—senUniversity，Guangzhou 510275，P．R．China) Abstract：Astreamfiowdroughtindexwascalculatedbyusingmonthlyrunofffrom1959to2009atMakouhydmlo~cstationinthe lowerreachesoftheXijiangRiver．Thehydrologicdroughtdurationandintensitywascharacterizedthroughurntheory，whichwere usedtoconsturctthebivariatejpintdistributionmodelinthispaper．Theresultsofdroughtdurationandintensityjpintdistribution modelshowthat：(1)Thereishighcorrelationcoefficientof0．617betweenstreamflowdroughtdurationandintensity；(2)The marginaldistributionsofdroughtdurationandintensitycanbebetterrepresentedbythree—parameterWeibuUdistribution；(3)The Gumbel-HougaardcopulawhichbelongstoArehimedeanCopulafamilywasselectedforconsturctingthejointdistributionmodelof hydrologicaldroughtdurationandintensitybyusinggoodness—of-fittest；(4)The5— 10yearsreturnperiodandtwentyyearsreturn periodofhydrologicdroughtcanreachtoheavydroughtlevelandextremedroughtlevel，respectively；(5)Theencounterprobabili— tiescanbeprovidedfordiagnosisandpredictionofdroughtcharacteristicsofrthecorrespondencebetweenspecificdroughtduration andhydrologicaldroughtlevelsorbetweenspecificdroughtintensityanddroughtdurationintheprobabilitysense． Keywords：Hydrologicdrought；streamflow drought