在当前宏观经济环境中招行业务发展与研究.pdfVIP

在当前宏观经济环境中招行业务发展研究 摘 要 2008 年，在美元不断贬值和大宗商品预计需求大幅增长的推动下， 通货膨胀肆虐全球；而随着美国愈演愈烈的次贷危机通过全球经济一体 化和国际金融市场的传导，将世界拖进了百年不遇的金融海啸。国内经 济运行的失衡又进一步阻碍了中国经济的平稳增长。为此，中国将采取 刺激内需等一系列调控措施确保经济继续增长。 招商银行是一家优秀的股份制银行，业务发展良好。当前宏观经济 环境对招商银行的业务发展带来很大冲击。主要体现在还贷能力下降导 致信用风险的增大；宏观调控缩小了存贷款利息差，从而减少了利润空 间；经济的不景气导致信贷业务规模的压缩；以及汇率风险的加大使银 行经营面临更大的不确定性。为了持续发展，招商银行应该采取转变以 存贷款业务为主的经营模式来降低对信贷业务的过分依赖；鼓励发展零 售业务来弥补公司业务的下滑；选择有发展潜力的客户以改善贷款业务 的结构；以及运用各种金融工具抵御汇率风险的业务发展策略。 此外，宏观经济调控也为招商银行的业务发展提供了许多新的机遇。 招商银行应抓住这些机遇，重点发展的三项最有前景的业务：信用卡、 零售中间业务和海外业务，并阐述各自应采取的具体发展策略。 关键词：信用风险，汇率风险，零售业务，中间业务 THE RESEARCH FOR THE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT OF CMB IN THE CURRENT MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ABSTRACT In 2008, inflation has indulged world wide under the depreciation of US dollar and the assumption of future enormous commodities demand. But the deeper and deeper US subprime mortgage crisis pulls the world into financial tsunami with global economic integration carrying on and international financial market conducting. Domestic economic unbalance obstructs China economy from developing stably. So China government is anxious to take a range of “forceful” measures for purpose of keeping economy growing continually. China Merchants Bank (CMB) is an excellent listed company, with well developing business. But its business development is restricted by current macro economy. Main impacts are the credit risk increased due to poor repayment abilities, the profit decreased by interest margin reduced, the credit banking scale dropped down due to the economic depression, and the uncertainty of t