美国经济形势及对中国经济影响.pptVIP

2007－2010美国经济形势及对中国经济的影响 Robert J. Lee Economy and Politics Economic Crisis Political Crisis US attitude towards China Current status Future problems Economic Crisis 历史背景 :次级房屋信贷危机 政治因素: the desire for increased access to home ownership for low income families 次级房屋信贷(Subprime mortgage) 资产证券化(Mortgage Backed Securities): Fannie Mae（房利美）Freddie Mac（房地美）、Ginnie Mae(吉利美) July 08: 印地麥克銀行(Indie Mac) failed 联邦政府接管了房利美和房地美 危机开始影响到那些与房地产无关的普通信贷 信用衍生性商品: 雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)、美國國際集團 (AIG)、美林證券(Merrill Lynch)、摩根史坦利(Morgan Stanley)和高盛證券 (Goldman Sachs) 2008年9月14日後的一週大型金融機構的危機 雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破產 美林證券宣佈被美國銀行收購 2008年9月全球股市大崩盤 聯儲局應AIG要求，向AIG提供高達850億美元的同業信貸融資便利服務 美國證券交易委員會 SEC暫停了對本國的金融類股票短線賣空 美國救市方案 2008年經濟穩定緊急法案 政府撥出七千億美元來購買非流動的不動產擔保證券 美國民眾反應:大銀行們先是主張資本主義式的放任型擴張，現在出了事卻要求以社會主義的方式掏國庫的錢救大銀行的資本家們，民眾卻失業，信用破產與失去房子 Consequences Collapse of housing price Detroit, Miami, Las Vegas Loan default, foreclosures Bank failures Stock Market collapse Unemployment rate at 10% Loss of consumer confidence and consumer spending (2/3 of economy) Deficit crisis at the state level Housing price Index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) GM Has many brands: Buick, Oldsmobile, Saturn, Hummer, Pontiac, GMC, Chevrolet, Cadillac, etc GM versus UAW: Pension and healthcare benefit for retirees, rising health care cost (unsustainable) Closing of dealerships, factories, bankruptcy President Bush’s administration only weeks before leaving office gave GM and Chrysler $17.4 billion in loans The Obama administration pumped billions more into the car makers but gained concessions from company stakeholders and pushed GM and Chrysler through quick bankruptcies Rescue “government motors” to recent IPO, partly to rescue UAW union benefit – stock holder and bond owner wiped out, with help of bankruptcy court Political Crisis Politics in the USA Big government versus small government Religious conservatism War against Islam Abortion Gays in the military Separation of Church and State Immigration Arizona i