管理学第4章 决策.pptVIP

Programmed, or routine, decision making is the most efficient way to handle structured problems. However, when problems are unstructured, managers must rely on nonprogrammed decision making in order to develop unique solutions. * Exhibit 3-8 describes the relationship among types of problems, types of decisions, and level in the organization. Structured problems are responded to with programmed decision making. Unstructured problems require nonprogrammed decision making. * Individual and group decisions have their own set of strengths. Neither is ideal for all situations. * The effectiveness of group decision making is also influenced by the size of the group. The larger the group, the greater the opportunity for heterogeneous representation * Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 3 Chapter 决策 Copyright ?2011 机械工业出版社华章公司 学习目标 描述决策过程中的步骤 解释管理者用于决策的三种方法 描述决策类型和管理者面临的决策情境 讨论群体决策 讨论决策制定的当代专题 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 管理者怎样做决策? 决策过程 从识别问题，到选择解决方案，最后结束语评价决策的效果的八个步骤。 问题 问题与理想之间的差异 决策标准 与决策有关的因素 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 评价决策效果 图3-1 决策过程 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 标准 重要性 标准 重要性 价格 10 维修记录 5 车内舒适性 8 性能 3 耐用性 5 操控性 1 汽车购买决策过程中的标准和权重 决策实施 决策实施是指将决策传递给会受影响的有关人员并得到他们的行动承诺。 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 决策过程的最后一个步骤 直觉 运用经验原则以简化决策 可能导致错误和偏见 过分自信偏见 不现实的自我肯定态度 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 决策的理性模型 理性模型假定 管理者会做出符合逻辑和具有一致性的选择以实现价值最大化 面临的问题是清楚和明白的 决策制定者有一个明确、具体的目标 知道所有可能的备选方案和可能产生的结果 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 有限理性模型 管理者受限于自身获得信息的能力 管理者在不完全信息条件下做出决策，他们只能寻求满意 Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Copyright ?2011 Pearson Education, In