CIO评估信息服务价值的行为的决策研究.pdfVIP

CIO 评估信息服务价值的行为与决策研究 1 1 2 1 丁 邡 ；陶 星 ；温 乐 ；王其文 （1．北京大学光华 管理学院，北京 100871；2. 中国人民大学 信息学院，北京 100872） 摘要：本文是针对中国技术密集型企业进行IT资产投资的实证和理论研究。本文首先基于实证调查的结果分析IT投资的决策 环境和CIO 的风险态度，然后建立CIO对外部IT顾问提供信息的价值进行分析和判断的数学模型，最后在分析数学模型的基 础上得出研究结论。实证调查表明，在IT投资决策的过程中大部分CIO属于风险中性。针对风险中性的决策者，基于贝叶斯 决策的理论和方法，本文分多种情况计算了购买信息服务相比无信息服务条件下IT投资期望收益的增加值，并与信息服务的 费用做了比较，以帮助企业CIO做出是否购买信息服务和是否进行IT投资的决策。 关键词：CIO （首席信息官）；信息服务；风险中性；贝叶斯决策 中图分类号：C931 文献标识码：A CIOs’ Behavior and Decision-making in their Evaluation of Information Service 1 1 2 1 Fang Ding ；Xing Tao ；Le Wen ；Qiwen Wang (1. Guanghua School of Management, Peking Uinversity,100871, China; 2.School of Information, Renmin University of China,100872, China) Abstract ：This research focuses on the industries in which information intensity is high by means of empirical and theoretical study. Based on the investigation in China, we analyze the IT investment context and CIOs risk attitude. Next, a mathematical model is presented which describes how CIOs analyze and assess the value of information service provided by external IT advisers. Finally, we analyze the model. In the process of evaluating the external information service, most of Chinese CIOs are risk-neutral. Increase in expected revenue in the circumstances of with and without information service is analyzed in several cases. Then, comparing the increase in expected revenue with the cost of information service, we reach the conclusion. Our research will help CIOs make the decisions whether they need to buy the information service and whether they invest in the IT assets. Key words: CIO （Chief Information Officer ）；Information service ；Risk-neutral ；Bayesian decision