6.30山区对流性暴雨成因机制与漏报分析.doc

“6.30”山区对流性暴雨成因机制及漏报分析 Analysis of “6.30” Mountainous convective rainstorm formation mechanism and its Missing Report 杜其成 （黄山市气象台，安徽 黄山 245021） 摘要：利用地面自动站、雷达、FY-2E红外卫星云图以及LAPS等资料，对2013年6月30日发生在皖南山区的一次局地、突发性的对流性暴雨过程的成因和预报失误原因进行了分析；结果表明：由中尺度地面辐合线和中气旋触发形成的MCS是这次过程的直接影响系统；中高层的干空气侵入有利于对流不稳定层结的形成与发展，导致对流性暴雨产生；强降水中心出现在对流云团发展强盛到成熟阶段，落区位于MCS的中心附近或头边界；同时，地形阻挡产生强迫上升运动对MCS的发展起到促进和加强作用。这次暴雨过程漏报的主要原因是：大尺度天气形势配置不是很有利，对中层干侵入的分析不够深入和未能充分运用中小尺度的LAPS资料。 关键词：MCS，对流性暴雨，中尺度辐合线，漏报 Abstract: With the automatic weather station, radar, FY-2E infrared satellite images and LAPS data, the causes of a local sudden Convective storm process in South Anhui mountainous area on June 30, 2013 and its prediction errors were analyzed. The results showed that the MCS that triggered by surface mesoscale convergence line and cyclone is a direct impact the system of the process; in mid- and -upper level dry air intrusion is propitious to the formation and development of unstable stratification of severe convective, which lead to the convective rainstorm; Severe precipitation emerges at developing and mature stages of mesoscale convective cloud clusters, falling area is located in the MCS near the center or head boundary; meanwhile, an upward motion forced by the topographic barrier has promotion and strengthen to the development of MCS. The main reason for the missing prediction is that large-scale synoptic configuration is not very favorable, the analysis of middle dry air intrusion is not deep enough and failed to make full use of small and medium scale LAPS data. Keyword: MCS, Convective rainstorm, mesoscale convergence line, missing prediction 引言 暴雨是皖南的主要气象灾害之一，尤其是突发性强、持续时间短、范围小、强度大的对流性暴雨极易引发山洪、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害[1]。多年来，气象工作者对灾害性暴雨天气过程的典型个例研究较多，但对山区局部短时强降水的个例分析相对较少。2013年6月30日07时至10时黄山地区出现一次暴雨，局部乡镇大暴雨天气过程，其中徽州区部分乡镇3h降水量超过100 mm。这次突发对流性暴雨导致山洪爆发，造成12人死亡，引起国内多家媒体关注与报道，作为地市级气象预报工作者身感预报工作责任重大；另外，地市级预报员不能仅局限于依赖于欧洲的数值预报，要灵活运用多家中小尺度的精细化数值预报,如LAPS，INCA等等；同时也要注重分析地面多要素自动站的观测资料，这样才能把地市级预报做的更细、更准。本文利用自动站资料、卫星云