CMIP5模式对东亚500 hPa高度场主要模态时空结构模拟能力的评估.pdfVIP

doi：10．11676／qxXb2014．065 气象学报 CMIP5模式对东亚 500hPa高度场主要模态 时空结构模拟能力的评估 黄海玲 。 江志红 王志福 陈威霖 HUANGHailing_ JIANGZhihong WANGZhifu CHENWeilin 1．气象灾害教育部重点实验室，气象灾害预报预警与评估协 同创新 中心，南京信息工程大学，南京，210044 2．民航华东空管局气象中心，上海 ，200335 1．KeyLaboratoryofMeteorologicalDisasterofMinistryofEducation，CollaborativeInnovationCenteronForecastand EvaluationofMeteorologicalDisasters．NanjingUniversityofInformationScience Technology，NⅡnjing210044， China 2．HuadongMeteorologyCenterofCAAC，Shanghai200335，China 2014—04—25收稿 ，2014—06—03改 回． 黄海玲 ，江志红，王志福 ，陈威霖．2015．CMIP5模式对东亚 500hPa高度场主要模态时空结构模拟能力的评估．气象学报 ， 73(1)：110—127 HuangHailing，JiangZhihong，WangZhifu，ChenWeilin．2015．Theevaluationofthe500hPageopotentialheightsmainmodes inEastAsiaasdonebytheCMIP5models．ActaM eteorologicaSinica，73(1)：110。127 Abstract Basedonthe1961—2005monthly500hPageopotentialheightdatafrom theNationCenterforEnvironmentalPre— diction (NCEP)。thispaperevaluatesthewintersandsummers500hPageopotentialheightinEastAsia(EA)asaresimula— tedbythe39climatemodelsinthethePhase5oftheCoupledModelIntercomparisonProject(CMIP5)historicalsimulation experiment．TheEmpiricalOrthogonalFunction (EOF)，Taylorfigures，ProbabilityDensityFunctions(PDFs)andtwoas— sessmentindicatorshavebeenusedtofindthemodelswhicharebetterinsimulatingthewinterandsummercirculationmodesin EA．Theresultsshow that：(1)Themodelsconsideredareabletosimulatereasonablythemainmodesinbothwinterandsum— mar，especiallywinter．(2)IPSL—CM5 LR，MP卜ESM—P，CMCC—CMS，FGOALS-g2and HadGEM2一ESarethemodelsbet— teratreproducingthewintersspatia1structures，whileECEARTH ，CanESM2，CMCGCM ，GFDL—ESM2G andIPSL—CM5A— MRarebetteratreproducingthesummersspatialstructures．Itsfoundthatallthemodelsconsideredareabletosimulaterea— sonablythesemainmodeswithW esternPacific(WP)beingthemodewhich isbestspatiallysimulatedand，thethirdmodebe— ingworstinthewinter．butthefirstmodebeingthemodewhich