毕业论文-敏感性分析在长期投资决策中的实证研究.doc

 毕业论文（设计）独创性声明 本人郑重声明所提交的毕业论文（设计）是本人在指导教师的指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。除文中特别加以标注的地方外，论文中不包含他人已经发表的学术成果或者他人为获得高等院校学位而使用过的材料，论文（设计）中不涉及任何知识产权纠纷。否则，本人将承担一切责任。 学生签名：_____________ 日 期：_____________摘 要 随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的进一步完善，投资活动已经遍及整个社会经济生活。长期投资项目的经济效益关系到投资人的直接利益。投资决策一般为长期决策,它对未来发生的数据往往难以准确的估计。因此，如何出正确、科学的长期投资决策，较好地控制并降低长期投资的风险，提高长期投资项目的经济效益水平，就成为投资者和决策者共同关心的根本问题。本论文采用实证的研究方法，在论述相关研究成果和理论分析的基础上，以台州欣涯洁具有限公司的长期投资为研究样本，采用敏感性分析法、概率分析及贝叶斯分析，对长期投资进行敏感分析，进而对长期投资决策进行解剖说明。实证研究的结果是要通过深入的分析及多种长期投资方案的选择，对长期投资决策选出最佳方案，还可以找出影响长期投资的关键性因素。 关键词：；；；Abstract As Chinas socialist market economic system to further improve the investment activity has been throughout the social and economic life. Long-term economic benefits of investment projects related to the direct interests of the investors. Investment decision-making is generally a long-term decision-making, it is often occurring in the future of the data difficult to accurately estimate. Therefore, how to make a correct and scientific long-term investment decision-making, better control and reduce the risk of long-term investment to improve the level of long-term economic benefits of investment projects, investors and policy makers have become the fundamental issues of common concern. This paper uses empirical research methods, in his discussion of the relevant research results and theoretical analysis based on the Sanitary Ware Co., Ltd. Taizhou Xin Ya long-term investment for the study sample, using sensitivity analysis, probabilistic analysis and Bayesian analysis of long-term sensitive analysis of investment and thus long-term investment decisions on the autopsy instructions. Empirical results of the study is to, through in-depth analysis and a variety of long-term investment program of choice for long-term investment decision-making to select the best programs, but also to identify the key factors that affect long-term investment. Key words: Sensitivity analysis; Long-term investments; probabilistic analysis; Bayesian analysis 目 录 引