安徽省冰雹灾害风险评估模型的研究.pdfVIP

安徽省冰雹灾害风险评估模型研究 1 1 2 1 1 3 唐为安 ，田红 ，温华洋 ，谢五三 ，王胜 ，杨元建 1）安徽省气候中心 安徽合肥 230031 ；2 ）安徽省气象信息中心 安徽合肥 230031 ； 3 ）安徽省气象科学研究所 安徽合肥 230031 摘要：为了完善冰雹灾害风险评估方面的研究，本文以安徽省为例，利用冰雹灾损及主要致 灾因素数据，在识别冰雹关键致灾因子的基础上，构建了冰雹灾害风险评估模型，并确定了 不同灾害风险等级的临界阈值，最后分析了近50年来安徽省冰雹灾害强度年极值的变化特 征。结果表明：1）降雹最大直径和降雹持续时间为冰雹灾害致灾关键因子，其与灾损的相 关系数分别为0.577和0.524，均通过α 0.01显著水平检验，而降雹时风速与灾损的相关程 度未能通过α 0.05 显著水平检验。2 ）冰雹灾害风险评估模型经检验效果良好，确定的不 同致灾风险等级的临界阈值与实际发生情况基本一致，可应用于冰雹灾害风险评估研究。3 ） 近50a来，安徽省冰雹强度年极值变化趋势波动不一，特别在上世纪90s有较为明显的上升趋 势且年极值变率最大。 关键词：冰雹灾害；致灾因子；风险评估；安徽省 Study on evaluation model of hail hazard risk in Anhui Province 1 1 2 1 1 3 Tang Weian , Tian Hong , Wen Huayang ,Xie Wusan ,Wang Sheng ,Yang Yuanjian , 1) Anhui Province Climate Center,Hefei,230031; 2)Anhui Meteorological Information Centre,Hefei,230031; 3) Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science,Hefei,230031 Abstract: In order to improve the research on hail hazard risk assessment, Anhui province was taken as a case in this paper. Based on the loss and disaster-causing indicators data of hail hazard, the key disaster-causing indicators of hail hazard were identified and the evaluation model of hail hazard risk was built subsequently. Moreover, the critical threshold of different risk grade was established. Finally, the annual extreme values of hail in the past 50a were analyzed. The result showed that: the maximum diameter of hailstones and duration of hail events were key disaster-causing indicators of hail hazard, both of them were significantly positive correlated with hail loss, and the correlation coefficients were 0.577 and o.524 respectively, while the