中日经济发展过程中的耕地面积变化比较和启示.pdfVIP

中日经济发展过程中的耕地面积变化比较及启示 刘子铭，冯淑怡，曲福田 （南京农业大学中国土地问题研究中心，江苏南京 210095 ） 摘要: 研究目的：借鉴环境经济学方法，构建耕地面积变化综合分析框架——规模效应、结构效应和技术效应，总结、 比较中国和日本在经济发展过程中的耕地面积变化规律，并试图为我国耕地保护提供新的思路。研究方法：对数平均 Divisia指数分解法和比较分析方法。研究结果：（1）在经济快速发展阶段，中国和日本的耕地损失均呈现倒“U”曲 线形状；（2）从影响机理来看，规模效应是影响耕地减少速度的主要原因，技术效应是降低耕地减少速度的重要力量， 结构效应对耕地减少速度有轻微的正向影响；（3）与日本相比，中国的土地利用更为粗放，其原因不在于中国经济规 模扩张的速度，而在于不尽合理的产业结构和较低的科技进步水平。研究结论：应通过转变经济发展方式，调整和优 化产业结构，建立、完善相关耕地保护的政策体系，实现保护耕地红线目标。 关键词：土地经济；耕地面积；经济分解；比较；启示 Economy Development and the Changes of Farmland Area in China, Japan: Effects and Implications LIU Zi-ming, FENG Shu-yi, QU Fu-tian (China Center for Land Policy Research, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China) Abstract: The purpose of this research is to establish an integrated analytical framework – specifically including level effect, composition effect and technology effect, to summary and compare the regularity of area change of farmland during economy development in China and Japan, and to derive policy implications to protect farmland for the future China. Method employed are logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition and comparative analysis. Results indicate that (1) in the stage of rapid economic development, farmland decreasing shows a characteristic of Kuznets Curve; (2) level effect stimulated farmland decrease, technology effect was helpful in reducing farmland decrease, and composition effect played only minor role in stimulating farmland decrease; (3) the reasons for China using more land in comparison to Japan are unreasonable industrial structure and low technology improvement rather than the high-speed economy growth. Based on the results above, this paper sugg