【毕业设计.论文】基于因子_logistic模型的房地产业上市公司财务预警分析.pdfVIP

2010 5 () No. 5, 20 10 114 JOURNAL OF HARBIN UNIVERSITY OF COMMERCE Ser i lNo. 114 [] ) logistic , ( , 710 129) [ ] , 102 , Logistic, , logistic; , , , [] ; ; logistic; [] F235. 9 1 []A [] 1671- 7 112( 20 10) 05- 0089- 05 An a ly sis on F in an cia l E ar ly W a r n in g of R ea l E sta te L ist ed C om p an y b a sed on th e Fa ctor - log istic M od el LI Ji n- zhong, WU T ie- m ei ( School ofM n gem ent, Northwestern Polytechn ic lUn iversity, X i. n 7 10129, Ch in ) A bs tr act: To p rovide n effective m ethod to p revent nd control fin nci l risk of th e re l est te listed comp n ies, th is p per est b lishes n fin nci l e rly w rn ingm odel b sed on fin nci l d t nd udit opin ion of n e rly three ye rs of 102 re l est te comp n ies by using f ctor n lysis ndLogistic regression. Th e empiric l resu lts show th t the udit op in ion h s the fin nci l e rly- w rn ing inform tion conten t, the correct r te of e rlyw rn ing is mi proved by dding the udit op in ion to logistic models; b ility to short- term solvency nd e rn ings growth p l y k ey role in the fin nci l situ 2 tion of the re l est te listed comp n ies, Th erefore, in order to preven t fin nci l crisis occurring, the re l est te comp n ies shou ld p y tten tion to re2 turn s of ssets nd incre se the op er tion l efficiency nd c p city t the sm e tmi e. K ey word s: fin nci l e rlyw rn ing; f ctor n lysis; logistic m odel; re l est te 66, 5 () Z , , Z, ,