长江危险品船舶交通事故应急资源优化配置研究_王致维.pdfVIP

2011 年 10 月 水运工程 Oct. 2011 第 10 期 总第 459 期 Port Waterway Engineering No. 10 Serial No. 459 长江危险品船舶交通事故应急资源 优化配置研究 1 2 王致维 ，张培林 （1.长江海事局，湖北 武汉 430016 ；2.武汉理工大学交通学院，湖北 武汉 430063 ） 摘要：针对长江危险品船舶交通事故应急资源配置中存在的问题和自身特点，从应急系统中应急资源的投入产出的 整体相对效率考虑，运用数据包络分析（DEA ）对长江危险品交通事故应急资源配置效率进行评价，在此基础上， 用神经 网络对评价所得数据进行训练，并对生成方案的效果进行预测，从而获得全局最优的危险品交通事故应急资源优化配置方 案，为目前长江危险品船舶交通事故应急资源的科学配置提供了重要的参考依据。 关键词：长江水域；危险品交通事故；资源优化配置；数据包络分析；BP神经网络 ( ) 中图分类号：U 698.3 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1002-4972 2011 10-0054-04 Resource allocation of emergency system based on DEA and BP neural network 1 2 WANG Zhi-wei , ZHANG Pei-lin (1.Changjiang Maritime Safety Administration, Wuhan 430016, China; 2.Wuhan University of Technology School of Transportation, Wuhan 430063, China) Abstract: To counter the problems of Yangtze River ship dangerous goods emergency resources and their own characteristics, taking consideration of the overall relative efficiency of input-output in emergency response resources in the system and making use of data envelopment analysis(DEA) of dangerous goods accident emergency response vessel, this paper evaluates the efficiency of resource allocation, makes the evaluation proceeds with the neural network data for training, and predicts the effect of generating program, so as to obtain the global optimal ship dangerous goods emergency resource allocation optimization program, which can provide a refer