基于利率平价理论视角研究人民币汇率问题.pdfVIP

VValueValuealue EngineeringEngineeringEngineering ·25 · 基于利率平价理论视角研究人民币汇率问题 Research on the RMB Exchange Rate Issue Based on Interest Rate Parity Theory 韩民 Han Min ；赵杰 Zhao Jie （中国石油大学（华东），东营257061） China University of Petroleum （East China），Dongying 257061，China） （ 摘要：贸易顺差会导致汇率升值，这是许多人从西方经济学理论中得到的认识。随着我国的外贸连年顺差、外汇储备不断扩大，大量的外贸 顺差和外汇储备使得外汇市场上人民币升值压力很大，人民币汇率成为全球瞩目的焦点。近年来西方政界与学术界屡屡以中国贸易顺差为由 要挟人民币升值。而实际是欧美人以所谓的“全球经济再平衡”为幌子想要中国通过让人民币进一步升值来为金融危机买更多单。 然而人民币是否真正存在升值压力，我们通过实际测算一下来得出结论。本文依据利率平价理论，构造出一种估计货币汇率升值或贬值压 力的方法，并运用升值压力指标对人民币对美元汇率变动进行了检验，得出人民币对美元确实存在升值压力。 Abstract: Trade surplus will lead to exchange rate appreciation, which is the understanding many people get from the Western economic theory. As Chinas foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves expand year after year, they make a lot of pressure on RMB appreciation in the foreign exchange market. RMB exchange rate has become the focus of world attention. In recent years, Western political and academic circles threaten RMB revaluation in the ground of Chinas trade surplus repeatedly. The reality is the Europeans and Americans want China to buy more for the financial crisis by further appreciation of the yuan using the so-called rebalancing the global economy. But whether RMB appreciation pressure really exists, we should reach a conclusion by the actual calculations. This article which is based on interest rate parity theory constructed an estimate of currency appreciation or depreciation methods and tested the yuan-dollar exchange rate changes using of upward pressure index on. We obtained the existence of the yuan appreciation pressure on the dollar. 关键词： 人民币汇率；人民币升值；利率平价理论