概率组合法在辽河防洪能力计算中应用.pdfVIP

第 12 卷第 10 期 水利科技与经济 Vol 12 　No 10 　　　　 　　　　 2006 年 10 月 Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy Oct ,2006 概率组合法在辽河防洪能力计算中的应用 卢兴旺 ,唐德善 ,刘兴华 ,周小清 (河海大学 水利水电工程学院 ,南京 　210098) [摘 　要] 　通过风险决策的概率组合法 ,考虑水文的不确定因素来估算辽河干流福德店段河道 的实际防洪能力 ,能够对其现有防洪能力做初步分析和计算 ,对防洪能力的计算由简单的频率 分析向风险分析发展有实际的理论基础 ,为流域的防洪规划和管理运行提供更有价值的依据。 [ 关键词] 　概率组合 ;防洪能力;防洪标准;福德店 ( ) [ 中图分类号] 　TV1314 　　[文献标识码] 　A 　　[文章编号] 　1006 - 7175 2006 10 - 0689 - 02 Application of Probability Combination Method in Calculation of Flood Prevention Capacity of the Liaohe River LU Xing - wang , TANG De - shan , LIU Xing - hua , ZHOU Xiao - qing (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering of Hohai University , Nanjing 210098 , China) Abstract : This article estimates the actual flood prevention ability of the Fudedian part of the Liaohe River by applying the probability combination method on risk decision - making and also taking the uncertain elements of it hydrology into account. It provides preliminary analysis and computation of its existing flood prevention ability , lays the foundation of computing flood prevention ability by moving from the simple frequency analysis to the risk theory development , and also offers more valuable evidence for its basin’s flood prevention plans and management movement. Key words : probability combination ; flood prevention ability ; flood prevention standard ; Fudedian 　　河流的防洪能力主要指该河流保证本流域多大以下 ( ) 2 　如何计算河流的防洪能力 暴雨 n 年一遇 不成灾的能力 , 目前反映河流防洪能力 的指标通常为防洪标准 ,若该河流具有防御 n 年一遇洪