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《On numerical earthquake prediction》.pdf
EarthqSci(2014)27(3):319—335
DOI1O.1007/sl1589—014—0082一z
Onnumericalearthquakeprediction
Yaolin Shi ‘BeiZhang’SiqiZhang。
HuaiZhang
Received:17September2013/Accepted:19M arch 2014/Publishedonline:6May2014
@ TheSeismologicalSocietyofChina,InstituteofGeophysics.ChinaEarthquakeAdministrationandSpringer—VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014
Abstract Can earthquakes be predicted? How should fAnonymous 18841published on Sciencewhichpointed
peopleovercomethedifncultiesencountered inthestudy outthat “Themethodsby which weatherforecastsrae
ofearthquakeprediction?Thisissuecantakeinspiration maderaebasedalmostwhollyuponfactsofobservation
from the experiences of weather forecast. Although ratherthanuponestablisheddeductionsofscience.Thisis
weatherforecastingtookaperiodofabouthalfacenturyto unavoidable,because atmospheric movements are very
advance rfom empirical to numerical ofrecast.it has complicated,andbecausethescienceofmeteorologyisnot
achievedsignificantsuccess.A consensushasbeenreached yetsufficientlyadvancedtosarisfactorilyexplainthem in
amongtheChinese seismologicalcommunity thatearth— thedetailnecessaryofrsuccessfulforecasting”.In 1922.
quakepredictionmustalsodevelopfrom empiricalofre. Richardsonproposedtheideathatweatherofrecastcanbe
casting to physicalprediction.However.it is seldom madenumericallybysolvingasetofequationsfRichard—
mentioned that physicalprediction is characterized by son1922).AlthoughhefailedtoputtheideaintoSUC—
quantitatively numerica1predictions based on physical cessfu1practicedueto 1ack ofcomputing ability atthat
laws.This article discusses five key components for time.hispaper “W eatherPrediction byNumericalPro—
numericalearthquakeprediction andtheircurrentstatus. cess” stillmadehim thepioneeron numericalweather
W econcludethatnumericalearthquakepredictionshould forecast.M ediaexpectedweatherofrecastcoul
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