《On numerical earthquake prediction》.pdf

EarthqSci(2014)27(3)：319—335 DOI1O．1007／sl1589—014—0082一z Onnumericalearthquakeprediction Yaolin Shi ‘BeiZhang’SiqiZhang。 HuaiZhang Received：17September2013／Accepted：19M arch 2014／Publishedonline：6May2014 @ TheSeismologicalSocietyofChina，InstituteofGeophysics．ChinaEarthquakeAdministrationandSpringer—VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014 Abstract Can earthquakes be predicted? How should fAnonymous 18841published on Sciencewhichpointed peopleovercomethedifncultiesencountered inthestudy outthat “Themethodsby which weatherforecastsrae ofearthquakeprediction?Thisissuecantakeinspiration maderaebasedalmostwhollyuponfactsofobservation from the experiences of weather forecast． Although ratherthanuponestablisheddeductionsofscience．Thisis weatherforecastingtookaperiodofabouthalfacenturyto unavoidable，because atmospheric movements are very advance rfom empirical to numerical ofrecast．it has complicated，andbecausethescienceofmeteorologyisnot achievedsignificantsuccess．A consensushasbeenreached yetsufficientlyadvancedtosarisfactorilyexplainthem in amongtheChinese seismologicalcommunity thatearth— thedetailnecessaryofrsuccessfulforecasting”．In 1922． quakepredictionmustalsodevelopfrom empiricalofre． Richardsonproposedtheideathatweatherofrecastcanbe casting to physicalprediction．However．it is seldom madenumericallybysolvingasetofequationsfRichard— mentioned that physicalprediction is characterized by son1922)．AlthoughhefailedtoputtheideaintoSUC— quantitatively numerica1predictions based on physical cessfu1practicedueto 1ack ofcomputing ability atthat laws．This article discusses five key components for time．hispaper “W eatherPrediction byNumericalPro— numericalearthquakeprediction andtheircurrentstatus． cess” stillmadehim thepioneeron numericalweather W econcludethatnumericalearthquakepredictionshould forecast．M ediaexpectedweatherofrecastcoul