中国钢材市场发展趋势及对铁矿石市场的影响.pdfVIP

Series No. 363 金 属 矿 山 总第363 期 September 2006 METAL MINE 2006年第9 期 ·专题综述 · 中国钢材市场发展趋势及对铁矿石市场的影响 吴溪淳 （中国钢铁工业协会） 摘 要 依据我国国内钢铁生产和消费、钢材外贸、GDP 的增长和固定资产投资等方面的数据，分析了钢铁工 业产能过剩的现实和趋势。考虑到科技进步，并列举了工业、农业和交通运输业等国民经济发展的有关数据，说明 “十一五”期间国内钢铁市场需求还将增长，但增幅将逐年回落。预计2010 年需要生产钢5 亿t 。用全球经济、全 球钢铁产量变化和国内钢材进出口结构等有关数据，分析了“十一五”期间中国钢铁市场的不稳定因素，并预计钢 材价格必将不稳定。同时根据钢铁市场状况、铁矿采选建设和生产状况以及进口矿石量等，说明铁矿石将较长时 期保持较高价位，不可能大幅回落。 关键词 “十一五” 钢材市场 铁矿石市场 铁矿价格 Effect of Chinas Steel Market Development Trend on Iron Ore Market Wu Xichun （China Iron and Steel Industrial Association ） Abstract The reality and trend of the surplus of the production capacity of iron and steel industry are analyzed based on the data relating to Chinas iron and steel production and consumption，foreign trade of steel ，GDP increase and the in- vestment on fixed assets. By citing the data of industry ，agriculture and transportation that are related to the national econo- my development and by taking into consideration of the scientific and technological advance，it is illustrated that the domes- tic demand on the iron and steel in the Eleventh Five-year Plan period will still grow but with a yearly decreasing increase range. It is expected that 500 Mt steel will be needed in 2010 . The factors influencing the stability of Chinas steel price in the Eleventh Five-year Plan period are analyzed with the data relating to the change in the global economy and global iron and steel production and Chinas steel import and export structure，and it is predicted that the steel price will inevitably be