《反思宏观经济政策》.pdfVIP

I M F S T A F F P O S I T I O N N O T E February 12, 2010 SPN/10/03 Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Research Department Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy1 Prepared by Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro Authorized for Distribution by Olivier Blanchard February 12, 2010 Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, we identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the pre-crisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework. JEL Classification Numbers: E44, E52, E58, G38, H50 Keywords: Macroeconomic policy, macroprudential regulation, inflation targets, automatic stabilizers Authors’ Email Addresses: oblanchard@ ; gdellariccia@ ; pmauro@ 1 One of the series of “Seoul papers” on current macro and financial issues. Olivier Blanchard is the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department; Giovanni Dell’Ariccia is an Advisor in the Research Department; Paolo Mauro is a Division Chief in the Fiscal Affairs Department. Helpful inputs from Mark Stone, Stephanie Eble, Aditya Narain, and Cemile Sancak are gratefully acknowledged. We thank Tam Bayoumi, Stijn Claessens, Charles Collyns, Stanley Fischer, Takatoshi Ito, Jean Pi