Modeling susceptibility to deforestation of remaining ecosystems in North Central Mexico with logistic regression.pdfVIP

JournalofForestryResearch(2012)23(3)：345--354 DOIl0．1007／sl1676．012．0230一z M odeling susceptibility to deforestation ofremaining ecosystems in NorthCentralM exicowithlogisticregression L．M iranda-Arag6n ·E．J．Trevifio—Garza·J．Jim6nez-P6rez·O．A．Aguirre-Calder6n M ．A．Gonzfilez-Tagle·M ．Pompa—Garcla ·C．A．Aguirre-Salado f， j ： Received：2011-08-·26； Accepted：2011-09--11 @NortheastForestryUniversityandSpringer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2012 Abstract： Determiningunderlyingfactorsthatfosterdeforestationna d forestmanagement． delineatingforestareasbylevelsofsusceptibiliyt areofthemainchal— Keywords：GIS；landusechange；proximityfactors；statisticalmodeling； lengeswhendefiningpoliciesforforestmna agementandplanning at ROC curve；regionalforestplanning regionalscale．Thesusceptibiliyt todeforestation ofremainingforest ecosystems(shrubland，temperateforestandrainofrest)wasconductedin thestateofSan LuisPotosi，locatedin noah centralMexico．Spatial Introduction analysistechniqueswereusedtodetectthedeforestedareasinthestudy areaduring 1993--2007．Logisticregressionwasusedtorelateexplana— Mexicoisthethirdoffivecountries(Brazil，Gabon，Mexico， toryvariables(suchassocial，investment，forestproduction，biorlhysical Papua wGuineaandIndonesia)thatwasrecordedmegreatest andproximityfactors)wiht susceptibilitytodeforestationtoconstruct decreaseraeasofprimary forestinthelast20years．However, predictivemodelswithtwofocuses：generalandbybiogeographicalzone Mexicoisalsoamongthecountrieswithmorethan1