POVERTY, GENDER, AND YOUTH - Population Council.pdfVIP

POVERTY, GENDER, AND YOUTH Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Progress or Stagnation? John Bongaarts WORKING PAPER NO. 7 2008 One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA pubinfo@ For information on Poverty, Gender, and Youth working papers, see /publications/wp/index.html This material may not be reproduced without written permission from the author. ISSN: 1554-8538 © 2008 The Population Council, Inc. Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Progress or Stagnation? John Bongaarts An earlier version of this paper was presented at the session on “Fertility declines: Rapid, slow, stalled” at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New York, 28–31 March 2007. John Bongaarts is Vice President and Distinguished Scholar, Population Council, New York. The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support for this research provided by the William and Flora Hewlett and Packard Foundations. ABSTRACT Over the past quarter century fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until the replacement level is reached. However, recent evidence suggests that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple DHS surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility is lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s, and more than half