埋地PVC管纵向断裂失效预测概率模型.pdfVIP

第 27 卷第 5 期 Vol.27 No.5 工 程 力 学 2010 年 5 月 May 2010 ENGINEERING MECHANICS 199 文章编号：1000-4750(2010)05-0199-06 埋地 PVC 管纵向断裂失效预测概率模型 *邵 煜，张土乔，俞亭超 (浙江大学土木工程学系，浙江，杭州 310058) 摘 要：针对存在初始裂纹缺陷的埋地 PVC 管在荷载作用下的纵向断裂失效问题，基于管道环向受力特性和裂 纹扩展经验公式建立失效预测模型，并在此基础上运用蒙特卡罗法(MC)对模型和参数的不确定性进行随机模拟， 给出管道失效风险率随服役时间变化的规律。计算结果表明：MC 数值模拟结果与实测值吻合良好，说明失效预 测模型的合理性；裂纹增长是一个由慢到快的过程，初始裂纹越大，失效时间越短；失效风险率在开始的 20 年 内达到最高，随后逐渐减小；所有参数都作为随机变量考虑时与只有初始裂纹为随机变量时相比，失效风险率提 高近一倍；管道初始裂纹、内压、残余应力和壁厚是影响管道失效时间的四个重要因素，管道内压和残余应力增 加都导致管道失效率变大，准确的给出管道初始裂纹的分布对 PVC 管纵向断裂失效预测尤为重要。能够减小 PVC 管初始裂纹缺陷的生产工艺和施工技术可以有效提高管道的使用寿命。 关键词：埋地管道；纵向断裂；蒙特卡罗；初始缺陷；失效预测 中图分类号：TU990.3; TB114.3 文献标识码：A PROBABILISTIC MODEL TO PREDICT LONGITUDINAL FRACTURE FAILURE OF BURIED PVC PIPES * SHAO Yu , ZHANG Tu-qiao , YU Ting-chao (Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China) Abstract: To resolve the longitudinal fracture failure problems for the buried PVC pipes with inherent defects under the complex stress induced by loads, the failure prediction model was developed, taking circumferential mechanical characters of pipes and a crack growth model into consideration. Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis, because of the uncertainty of the model and parameters. Results show that it is suitable to adopting the failure prediction model to calculate the failure rates, because the calculated values agreed well with the measured data. The crack growth rate increased with time under constant ex