山东省教育事业发展预测和对策研究.pdfVIP

!塞塑薹 出相应对策和建议； 3．本着普通高等教育稳步发展的原则，重点对2005年、2010 年和2015年山东省普通高等教育事业招生规模、在校生总量、基 本办学条件需求以及投资总量需求进行了预测、分析与评价； 4．根据预测结果对《山东省教育事业“十五”计划和2015年 发展规划》目标进行了可达性分析； 5．结合山东省教育事业现状和发展趋势预测结果，对今后山 东省教育事业的发展有针对性地提出了对策与建议，为对今后整个 教育事业的科学决策提供理论依据和支持。 本文的研究方法、理论及研究结果，不仅对制定山东省教育事 业发展规划具有重要的指导意义，而且对兄弟省市的类似工作也具 有重要的参考价值。厂 关键词：教育事业，数学模型，铡囟，在校越规模，招生数，专任 教师 。 Ⅱ 塑!坠盟 Forecasting and Policy Research on Educational Undertakings Development of Shandong Province ABSTRACT To carry out the strategy of‘rejuvenating China based on Science and Education’，aceelerate education reform and development． strengthen the training of SuccessOrS，and enhance the country quality and abillty of innovation，are the basic guarantees to realize the development targets for next century．How to grasp the pulse of educational undertakings correcⅡy，arrange a11 kinds of educational resollrces reasonably，adjust the educational undertakings development targets and strategy policy properly，avoid the mistaking of making policy，promote the development of all kinds of edu【cational undertakings healthily，steadily，and coordina；ely，will have very important means 011 theory and application． Forecasting on educational undertakings development tendency is the key to make its plan or policy．Many countries in the world， especially in developed countries，care this kind of project,and have made a series of development targets on different development periods． In China，education planning has been ignored for long time until the end of 1970s，Cheese government began to pay enough attention on this problem until the national opening policy Was carried out，and a series of successes have been made during the recent twenty years． Based on the history statistic data of educational undertakings， especially those after national opening polo was carried out,and statistic data of present population situation and prediction results of Shandong province，this paper presents the prediction index systems， m ABSTRACT models and modeling results for education