基于可拓理论的水电EPC工程施工进度风险评价_廖生雄.docxVIP

第 37 卷 第 5期 人民珠江http: / / rmzj． pearlwater． gov． cn2016 年 5 月PEAＲL ＲIVEＲdoi: 10. 3969 / j. issn. 1001-9235. 2016. 05. 016廖生雄，付继业． 基于可拓理论的水电 EPC 工程施工进度风险评价［J］． 人民珠江，2016，37( 5) : 72 － 75．基于可拓理论的水电 EPC 工程施工进度风险评价廖生雄，付继业( 三峡大学 水利与环境学院，湖北宜昌443002)摘 要: 为定量评价水电 EPC 工程的施工进度风险水平，综合运用可拓学理论，构建了多级可拓评价模型。通过风 险识别找出了水电 EPC 工程在施工阶段中的风险因素，具体包括人为因素、机械设备因素、环境因素、管理因素以 及其他因素。划分进度风险等级域并构建了施工进度风险指标体系，综合考虑各级指标权重影响，建立了基于多 级可拓评价方法的施工进度风险评价模型。最后通过实例对云南某已建工程在施工阶段中的进度风险进行多级 可拓评价，评价结果与实际施工状况相符合，从而验证了该模型的合理性和可行性。结果表明: 利用可拓理论可以 确定水电 EPC 工程在施工阶段中的进度风险等级，有效控制影响进度的因素，对于水电 EPC 工程施工进度风险评 价具有良好的应用价值。关键词: 可拓理论; 水电 EPC; 进度风险; 指标体系; 评价中图分类号: TV51; F284文献标识码: A文章编号: 1001-9235( 2016) 05-0072-04Ｒisk Evaluation of Hydropower EPC Project Progressof Construction Based on Extensibe TheoryLIAO Shengxiong，FU Jiye( College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering，China Three Gorges University，Yichang 443002，China)Abstract: For quantitative evaluation of the level of risk for the progress of construction of hydropower EPC project， a multi － level ex-tensible evaluation model was built for hydropower EPC project． Fisrtly，the risk factor for hydropower EPC project has been identified with risk recognition: included human factor，machinery factor， envirnment factor， management factor and other factor． Secondly， divid-ed the progress of risk level and set up progress of risk index system， comprehensive consideration of all levels of indicators weight，a risk assessment model of contruction schedule based on multi － level extensibe evaluation method is established． Finally， through an ex-ample， the project is evaluated by multi － level extension and the evaluation result is consistented with the actual situation． So the ra-tionality and feasibility of the model are verified． It is concluded that extensive theory can determine the risk level of progress in hydro-power EPC project and can control the factor of affecting the progress effectively， which has a strong application value for risk evaluation of progress of hydrop