第十章不确定下的决策分析(MBA讲义)[49p].pptVIP

Actual State of Nature W et ( W) Dr y ( D ) S eis m ic G oo d (G) P(W | G ) = P( D | G ) = Re s ult Ba d ( B) P(W | B ) = P( D | B ) = Revising Probabilities修正概率 Step #2—后验概率（Posterior Probabilities） Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Bayes’ Theorem贝叶斯定理 Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Risk Attitude风险态度 对于下面的抛硬币赌博，你愿意选择哪一种呢？ A: Heads: 赢 $200 Tails: 亏 $0 B: Heads: 赢 $300 Tails: 亏 $100 C: Heads