forecasting chapter- c i m s s（我预测章- c m s s）（100页）.docVIP

Chapter 13 Weather Forecasting “What will you do after college?” This question inspires excitement, but also dread, in many students. Your future is wonderful to ponder, but difficult to predict. So many different variables can affect your decisions. So many twists and turns may lie ahead! Similarly, the question “What will the weather be tomorrow?” has captivated, but also vexed, meteorologists for decades. Weather forecasting is one of the most fascinating aspects of meteorology. However, an accurate forecast requires a thorough knowledge of all the variables of the atmosphere, and also an understanding of how the atmosphere “twists and turns” and changes through time. This is a very hard task. Until the last century, scientists often assumed that precise weather forecasting was impossible. It’s not surprising, then, that the founder of modern weather forecasting was also a bit of a “slacker” who could not easily answer the question, “What will you do after college?” Lewis Fry Richardson (right; photo is from p. 17 of O. M. Ashford’s biography of Richardson, “Prophet—or Professor?,” Adam Hilger, 1988) graduated from Cambridge University in England in 1903, but he avoided majoring in any one branch of science. After college, he kept changing jobs and subjects. When he was 26, Richardson’s mother noted that he was having a “rather vacant year with disappointments.” A few years later, Richardson became interested in numerical approaches to weather forecasting. The rest is history: Richardson created, from scratch, the methods of modern weather forecasting that are now used worldwide. His remarkable story will guide us through the intricacies of computer-based forecasting. Before we get to Richardson, however, we will survey the various ways that weather forecasting can be done without a computer. From the dawn of civilization until about 1950, humans had to rely on a variety of very imperfect forecasting techniques. This was true during World War II