ppt课件-averypreliminaryversionofthebnbquarterlyprojectionmodel.pptVIP

The BNB Quarterly Projection ModelEmilia Penkova and Svilen Pachedzhiev The BNB Quarterly Projection Model Twinning Project “Adjustment of the Bulgarian National Bank to operate as a full-fledged member of the European System of Central Banks and the Euro-system” Component 2: Research and preparation for monetary policy operations in line with ECB best practices Introduction The first version of the Bulgarian National Bank Quarterly Projection Model (BNBQM) which belongs to the group of traditional structural macroeconomic models. The model is similar to the European System of Central Banks multi-country model country blocks. The guiding principle in designing the country blocks is that of close compatibility with the ECB Area-Wide Model. The development of a model over the period 1998-2007 poses formidable challenges, given the short and volatile time series – we calibrate coefficients. The model is continuously tested and simulated in order to improve it. It should be viewed as work in progress and an area for future empirical research within the BNB, rather than as a finished product.  The purpose of the BNBQM is twofold: First, to produce macroeconomic forecasts for the Bulgarian economy. Second, to assess the effects of economic shocks on the Bulgarian economy in simulated scenario analyses. Outline of Presentation Theoretical background Structure of the model and estimated equations Simulations Concluding remarks and extensions of research Supply side of the Economy The standard theory of monopolistic competition is applied. Profits of an individual firm are determined by returns from sale with costs of labour and capital subtracted. The production process is represented by a Cobb Douglas function. Supply side of the Economy Supply side of the Economy where Π(Yi) are profits of the firm, Li is the labour force used by the firm, Ki is the capital stock of the firm, α’s are the income shares; ρ i