ppt课件-computationalchallengesinassessmentofmarineresources.pptVIP

Computational challenges in assessment of marine resources Hans Julius skaug Talk given at Inst. of Informatics, UiB Nov. 28, 2002 Outline Mathematical ecology Management of living resources Computation and statistics Models Numerical integration in high dimensions Automatic differentiation Examples of ’assessment problems’ Harp seals Institute of Marine Research Units Bergen, Troms?, Fl?devigen, Austevoll, Matre 500 employees 135 researches Center for marine resources Fish (cod, herring, capelin, …) Whales and seals Management of living resources ‘Assessment’ = Estimation of Current stock size Biological parameters: mortality rates, birth rates, … Prediction of future stock size Given today’s status Under a given management regime (quota) Principles Maximize harvest Minimize risk of extinction Uncertainty Important for determining risk The complication Acoustic and trawl surveys do NOT give absolute estimates of stock size I = q · U where I = survey index U = stock size Population dynamics ut = stock size at time t Exponential growth ut = ut-1 ? (1 + ?1) Density regulation ut = ut-1 ? [1 + ?1(1- ut-1/ ?2)] Population dynamics Exponential growth ut = ut-1 ? (1 + ?1) Density regulation ut = ut-1 ? [1 + ?1(1- ut-1/ ?2)] Harvest ut = (ut-1 - ct-1) ? [1 + ?1(1- ut-1/ ?2)] Stochastic growth rate ut = (ut-1 - ct-1) ? [1+?1(1- ut-1/ ?2) + N(0, ?3)t ] Additonal complexity Age structure Spatial structure Interactions with other species Effect of environment Models in statistics Parameters ? structural parameter, dim(?) ? 20 u state parameter, dim(u) ? 1000 Data y ‘measurements’ Probability distributions p(y | u, ?) probability of data given u and ? p(u | ?) probability of u given ? p(?) ’prior’ on ? State-space model State equation p(u | ?) ut = (ut-1 - ct-1) ? [1+?1(1- ut-1/ ?2) + N(0, ?3)t ] Observation equation p(y | u, ?) yt = ?4 ? ut + N(0, ?5)t Models in statistics Joint probability distribution p(y,u,?) = p(y|u,?) ? p(u|?) ? p(?) M