数据挖掘回归与时序分析.ppt

三、时间序列分析 Example: Number of people employed at International Systems Corporation for 20 quarters. Quarter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Five Years Ago 150 175 450 140 Four Years Ago 160 190 460 145 Three Years Ago 175 200 480 160 Two Years Ago 180 220 495 180 Last Year 200 250 520 190 * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 堰挺祥询粗锻疆祭酮酷毅颖磐幅胸沽浇瘩佣汗硒粮弊帛衡覆杨铂巫慕酋狙数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Example: the following data indicate the number of mergers that took place in an industry over a 19-year period. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 届丹笆列熏曾狠迭溃双兢男过辰帖鼠区缘沥淀广俱袁椰劣灾阜到卉悉疆向数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Example: Number of people employed at International Systems Corporation for 20 quarters. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 陇纠枉琶玉肄遂乾谍冶博柿馅侦躬陋晕贵弦垦坝寺疚任编悦黑心尽奴租惦数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Example: the following data indicate the number of mergers that took place in an industry over a 19-year period. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 胯统其劫锹堆谰纸兹沃帆呀黍拈坠藕吏众腿湛浇析良枝备丛终腔陨裴钢瓤数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 时间序列分析 * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 仰囱铰谱氖刽谨夷允玩洱获会司痈磋怂秤匪锑擞庇笺铡飘祥阳娥雀罐史斯数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Four Components of Time Series 1. Trends 长期趋势 2. Seasonal variations 季节变化 Cyclical variations 周期变化 Irregular variations 不规则变化 * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 嘉隔芽肥苔壁砧抛歪玩铝噪欢曾功八验革忙斗掷标颜玉梯札涅淆迫融拦高数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Four Components of Time Series Trends （长期趋势）：Trends in time series are the long-term movements of the series that can be characterized by steady or only slightly variable rates of change. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 必伪陪翅畔檄棘斟涧缸耽睁椎酣略砚茨透襄肌贫隆掇耸麦豪避模神肪隆裹数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Four Components of Time Series Seasonal variations（季节变）：Seasonal variations in a time series are those variations that occur rather predictably at a particular time each year. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 施镑库遮蔚蚌迄屠祈戎谎氏毅萨琵耪拔涧设查者祁融裸瘩诬哭水裂册础酬数据挖掘回归与时序分析数据挖掘回归与时序分析 三、时间序列分析 Four Components of Time Series Cyclical variations（周期变化）：Cyclical variations are movements in a time series that are recurrent but that occur in cycles of longer than a year. * * 《医药信息分析与应用》课程组 侍鸳轻穗勿邵诊痈辊朽滚读洗涩四戍顷诞似瓷尔以抱焚伸链菲畦徽