Aging of Population【DOC精选】.docxVIP

Aging of PopulationLeonid A. Gavrilov and Patrick Heuveline??This is a manuscript of our article in The Encyclopedia of Population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, 2003.?[Note: This original manuscript is slightly different from the final publication because of small editorial changes.]???Reference to the published article:?Gavrilov L.A., Heuveline P.“Aging of Population.”In: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (Eds.)The Encyclopedia of Population. New York, Macmillan Reference USA, 2003Available at:/servlet/ItemDetailServlet?region=9imprint=000titleCode=M333type=4id=174029?Aging of population (also known as demographic aging, and population aging) is a summary term for shifts in the age distribution (i.e., age structure) of a population toward older ages.? A direct consequence of the ongoing global fertility transition (decline) and of mortality decline at older ages, population aging is expected to be among the most prominent global demographic trends of the 21st century. Population aging is progressing rapidly in many industrialized countries, but those developing countries whose fertility declines began relatively early also are experiencing rapid increases in their proportion of elderly people. This pattern is expected to continue over the next few decades, eventually affecting the entire world.? Population aging has many important socio-economic and health consequences, including the increase in the old-age dependency ratio.? It presents challenges for public health (concerns over possible bankruptcy of Medicare and related programs) as well as for economic development (shrinking and aging of labor force, possible bankruptcy of social security systems).?Defining and measuring population agingAs the study of population aging is often driven by a concern over its burdening of retirement systems, the aging of population is often measured by increases in the percentage of elderly people of retirement ages. The definition of retirement ages may vary but a typical