Okun’s Law, Productivity Innovations, and Conundrums in奥肯定律生产力的创新和难题.pptVIP

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2017-03-08 发布于上海
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Okun’s Law, Productivity Innovations, and Conundrums in奥肯定律生产力的创新和难题.ppt

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Okun’s Law, Productivity Innovations, and Conundrums in奥肯定律生产力的创新和难题

US vs EU: Gaps for Productivity (Output per Employee) Overall Differences in US and Europe Graphs In EU, employment tends to respond less than in the U.S. to output changes in the late half of the data (1994-2010) Difficult to analyze differences before 1994, because both output and employment were more volatile in the US than in the EU during the first 10 years of the data (1976-1986) Regression Analysis Europe vs. US, 1977-2010 Dependent variables: labor (E/N), productivity (Y/E) Independent variables: 4 lags of dependent variable Current value and 4 lags of output Error correction term Measures of productivity and labor are different from full US regression (Y/H and H/N respectively). Because we expect procyclical fluctuation in hours per employee, the long-run US response of employment to output changes in the comparative regression should be lower than in the full regression. Implications of Regression Results In the US there was a distinct shift toward unitary response of labor input to output changes, and zero response of productivity. This response was almost identical in the 1954-2010 and 1976-2010 sample periods In Europe there was an opposite shift toward increased responsiveness of productivity and decreased responsiveness of the labor input. Need an explanation for these opposing trends Unified Explanatory Hypothesis:“American Exceptionalism” Joint explanation of changes in American and European behavior American shifts toward greater labor response explained by “disposable worker” hypothesis Europe’s opposite shift explained by the absence of the conditions of the “disposable worker” idea and by differing institutions and policies that promote work sharing. Explanatory Hypothesis:The Disposable Worker Explains both rise in cyclical responsiveness and of income inequality Ingredients in increased management power: exec pay based on stock options, sensitivity to 2000-02 and 2007-09 stock market debacles Stock options help explain huge increase in