Poverty Reduction and the “Stabilisation Trap” – The Role of减贫和“稳定陷阱”的作用.pptVIP

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Poverty Reduction and the “Stabilisation Trap” – The Role of减贫和“稳定陷阱”的作用.ppt

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Poverty Reduction and the “Stabilisation Trap” – The Role of减贫和“稳定陷阱”的作用

Monetary Policy and “Stabilisation Trap” in Selected Asian Countries – Implications for Poverty Reduction Anis Chowdhury Professor of Economics University of Western Sydney, Australia Introduction … “deficit financing” can lead to a very unsustainable economy. Bolivia in the 1980s is an extreme example: its deficit rose to 28% of GNP – leading to hyperinflation and serious economic crisis. So, each country should aim at roughly balancing its budget…” (Human Development Report, 1991, p. 42) Generalisation from extreme cases led to the policy package of IMF/World Bank in the 1980s 1990s Single digit Inflation and growth stagnation Poverty in the 1990s Argentina in the 1980s hyper-inflation – the average annual inflation rate around 391% and average annual economic growth rate around 1% 1990s orthodox IMF stabilisation package succeeded; average annual inflation rate 1.5%, and the economy grew by an average annual rate of 6.7% during 1991-1997 However… the continuation of severe restrictive macroeconomic policies forced the economy into a deflationary spiral – the inflation rate dropped to –0.9% and –1.3% in 2000 and 2001 respectively economy contracted by –3.4% in 1999 and by –2.1% in 2000 unemployment rate rose from 6.5% in 1991 to 17.5% in 1996 consequently, the poverty rate (head-count ratio) rose from 21.8% in 1993 to 34.3% in 2002, and the Gini coefficient from 0.45 to 0.49 Asian Experience While lower inflation…is a positive indicator…a near-zero inflation rate may be symptomatic of demand deficiency leading to capacity underutilization…Targeting for a too-low inflation rate…can sometimes result in overkill. .. Yet another problem with pushing inflation too low is that it will make it difficult to bring about the large relative price changes that the structural adjustment policies aim at. (Bangladesh Report, p. 38). The point is not that the authority has to fight inflation at any price and to only value deflationary policy. Rather, it has to f