Solar Cycle 24 The Maunder Minimum That Didn’t 24个太阳周期的蒙德极小期不.pptVIP

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Solar Cycle 24 The Maunder Minimum That Didn’t 24个太阳周期的蒙德极小期不.ppt

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Solar Cycle 24 The Maunder Minimum That Didn’t 24个太阳周期的蒙德极小期不

Solar Cycle 24The Maunder Minimum That Didn’t Happen Doug Biesecker NOAA/SWPC Guiliana de Toma NCAR/HAO Outline Status of the current ‘official’ prediction When was solar minimum? Is the prediction still valid? Comparison between Cycle 24 (so far) and previous solar cycles Sunspots Activity What about that Maunder Minimum? What the ‘Official’ Panel ‘Officially’ Predicted Updated prediction released in May, 2009 Solar Minimum would occur in December, 2008 Remember, we only had smoothed data through October, 2008 Solar Maximum will occur in May, 2013 Solar Maximum will reach a peak SSN of 90 Average maximum is 113 What the Sun has actually done When was solar minimum? Parameter November 2008 December 2008 Smoothed SSN 1.7 1.7 SSN 4.1 0.8 # Spotless Days 16 28 # of Active Regions 2 1 By smoothed SSN we have a dilemma Use smoothed SSN only (keeps us in line with historical precedent) Average the two and get 2008.92 Or, could use a variation of Harvey and White (JGR 104, 1999) Monthly SSN Total number of regions Number of Spotless days Seems December wins this one for 2008.96 How do the minima stack up? Rank Order SSN CYCLE # DATE 1 0 5-6 1810.1 2 0.1 6-7 1823.2 3 1.5 14-15 1913.5 4 1.7 23-24 2008.9 5 2.2 11-12 1879.0 6 2.7 13-14 1902.0 7 3.2 4-5 1798.3 7 3.2 9-10 1856.0 9 3.4 18-19 1954.3 10 3.5 16-17 1933.7 … … 23 12.2 20-21 1976.2 24 12.3 21-22 1986.7 This was one of the all-time lows But only unusual in regards to lowest since 1913 Long before the space age Previous space age minimum was 8 Though Sputnik just missed a low of 3.4 What about Cycle 23 length? Rank Order Length CYCLE # 1 13.58 4 2 13.08 6 3 12.54 23 4 12.42 9 5 11.92 13 6 11.83 5 7 11.75 11 8 11.41 20 9 11.41 14 10 11.25 10 … … 23 9.25 3 24 9.16 2 Clearly one of the all-time longest Over a year longer than anything since Cycle 13 How is the Cycle Shaping Up So Far? The cycle is lagging slightly behind the prediction ~2 months Waldmeier says peak intensity correlates with rate of increase A Functi